中国经济波动的需求驱动力与国际耦合性

Demand Driver and International Coupling of China's Economic Fluctuation

本文尝试从国际贸易视角,同时在理论和经验层面分析中国经济波动的需求驱动力量与国际耦合性质。本文建立反应需求冲击的国民收入与国际贸易协同波动模型,依据国际贸易顺差的周期行为而识别中国经济波动的外部需求驱动类型和美国经济波动的内部需求驱动类型,从而揭示自20世纪90年代中期以来中国经济景气耦合美国经济景气的国际贸易传导机制。

Based on the modeling of the co-movement of national income and international trade, the demand driver and international coupling of China＇s economic fluctuation were investigated. The pro-eyclicity of China＇s trade surplus identified that China＇s economic fluctuation be driven by external demand shock, while the con-cy- clicity of American trade surplus identified that American economic fluctuation be driven by internal demand shock. Therefore, it was demonstrated that China＇s business cycle has been and will continue to be coupled with American business cycle through international trade.