消费行为与经济冲击对中国经常项目的影响——基于跨期最优消费理论的实证分析

The Effect of Consumption and Economic Shock on the Current Account of China:Experimental Analyze Based on the Intertemporal Model of Optional Consumption

本文引入跨期最优消费模型,将实际经常项目分解为平滑性经常项目与倾斜性经常项目,以考察经常项目受消费者行为和经济冲击的影响。研究发现:预期净产出增加导致平滑性经常项目逆差;预期净刚性支出增加造成倾斜性经常项目顺差;倾斜消费对经常项目作用效果超过平滑消费,形成实际经常项目顺差;短期内净产出暂时性冲击中的77.9%被经常项目吸收,长期内几乎全部被经常项目吸收;源于投资和政府支出的净产出持续性冲击将被经常项目完全吸收;源于产出的净产出持续性冲击27.8%被经常项目吸收。

The paper introduces the intertemporal model of optional consumption to analyze the relationship between consumption and current account imbalance in China, and how current account response to the shock of net output. It is found that the deficit of consumption smoothing component of the current account is caused by the increase of expected net output. The surplus of consumption tilting component of the current account is caused by the increase in expected expenditures. Current account surplus is caused by the dominating of tilting consumption on future. Temporal shock from GDP, investment and government expenditure will be absorbed by current account completely in the long term and 77. 9% in the short term. Persistent shock from investment and government expenditure will be absorbed by current account completely. And only 27. 8 percent of persistent shock from GDP will be absorbed by current account, and the other 72. 2% percent will be absorbed by consumption.