人民币升值、房价上涨与通货膨胀——兼论房价上涨是否助长了通胀

Appreciation of RMB,Surge of Housing Price and Inflation——Does Surge of Housing Price Promote Inflation?

利用VAR模型,通过协整检验和Granger因果关系检验,对人民币升值、房价上涨与通货膨胀三者之间的动态关系进行了实证分析。检验结果表明:人民币升值会推动房价上涨,房价上涨又会进一步推动人民币升值,二者存在正反馈效应;人民币升值无法抑制通货膨胀,而通货膨胀会推动人民币升值;房价上涨抑制了通货膨胀,而通货膨胀没有推动房价上涨;人民币升值无助于解决中美之间的贸易顺差问题;国际投机资本和国内投资投机资本是推动我国房价升高的两个主要因素。

Based on the model of VAR, adopting the methods of Cointegration test and the Granger test, this paper studies the dynamic relationship among appreciation of RMB, surge of housing price and inflation. The results of empirical research show： （ 1 ）the appreciation of RMB promotes the surge of housing price, and the surge of housing price also promotes the appreciation of RMB, which suggests there is the positive feed-back between the appreciation of RMB and the housing price; （2） the appreciation of RMB is not helpful to inhibit the inflation, but the inflation does promote the appreciation of RMB; （3）the surge of housing price inhibits the inflation, but the inflation does not promote the surge of housing price; （4） the appreciation of RMB does not the problem of trade between China and U.S. ; （5）it is the international and domestic speculative capital that pull the rising of housing price. Finally, some advice is suggested.