信贷差异、内需扩张与通胀变化的关联度

The Correlation of Credit Differences,Domestic Demand Expansion and Inflation Changes

实施应对金融危机的一揽子措施以来,各口径货币总量对CPI的预测能力明显下降,CPI回升速度显著低于依据历史经验测算出的货币增长对物价形成的压力。这一现象主要与货币供给结构变化有关。从信贷增长与内需在GDP增长中贡献度的关系来看,扩张性政策导致的信贷高增长并未明显超出内需扩张之所需,加之经济增长也并未超出其潜在水平,因此短期内没有产生明显的CPI通胀压力,但经济回升和货币信贷增长推升了通胀预期。鉴于通胀机理所发生的变化,宏观政策需要更多关注更广泛意义上的整体价格水平稳定,更多关注预期和环比数据变化以提高调控的前瞻性和有效性,同时要加强宏观审慎管理,多运用市场化和有弹性的政策工具实施调控。

Since the implementation of packages of measures to handle the financial crisis,the ability of monetary aggregation to predict CPI has decreased,CPI recovery rate is significantly lower than the pressure of monetary growth estimated by historical experience on prices.This phenomenon is mainly concerned with structural changes in the money supply.From the relations of credit growth and the contribution of the domestic demand in GDP growth,high growth of credit led by expansionary policies has not significantly exceeded the required expansion of the domestic demand,and economic growth has not exceeded its potential level.As a result,there is no significant CPI inflation in short-term,but economic recovery and growth of monetary credit have pushed up inflation expectations.Based on the changes happened in the mechanism of inflation,macroeconomic policy needs to draw more attention to the overall price level stability in the broader sense,more attention to changes between expectations and the ring data to improve the forward-looking and effective regulation.Meanwhile,we should strengthen the macro-prudential management and use the market-oriented and flexible policy tools to implement regulation.