产品内分工下中国进口结构与增长的二元边际——基于引力模型的动态面板数据分析

The Binary Margin of Chinese Imports' Structure and Growth under Intra-product Specialization——Based on Dynamic Panel Data Analysis of Gravity Model

经济全球化背景下,由于中国深入参与国际分工使得进口大幅提升,本文采用贸易增长的二元边际,以及市场多元化方法分析了进口产品的结构。2001—2006年,我国进口增长主要依靠数量扩张,进口构成主要还是来自老市场的老产品,并且中间品所占比重和增幅大于消费品和资本品的趋势还在扩大,这表明我国进口结构未发生明显变化。在双边贸易框架下研究各类产品进口增长的二元边际,文章采用改进的引力模型,实证检验了中国从主要贸易伙伴进口增长的决定因素和发展潜力。结果显示,双边贸易成本下降和多边阻力提高均能有效促进双边进口,产品内分工也有利于中间品进口增长,而中国从多数贸易伙伴进口还有很大发展空间。可见,我国不仅要进一步扩大进口数量,还要丰富进口产品的种类,这样才有利于进口结构的调整。

In the context of economic globalization, China＇s made a substantial increase of imports resulted from deeply involvement in the international division of labor. We use binary margin of trade growth and market diversification methods to analyze the structure of imports. From 2001 to 2006, China＇s import growth mainly relied on quantitative expansion, imports mainly came from the old markets, old products. The proportion of intermediate goods over consumer goods and capital goods is still expanding, which indicates that China＇s import structure does not change significantly. In the framework of bilateral trade, the paper uses the improved gravity model, empirically tests the determinants of growth and development potential of China＇s imports from major trading partners. The results show that the drop of bilateral trade cost and rise of multilateral resistance can effectively promote the bilateral imports, intra-product specialization is also conducive to growth of intermediate goods imports, while China imports from most trading partners has large potential room. So, China not only expands imports, but also rich in the types of imported products so that adjusts the imports structure.