贸易开放与中国的经济社会发展——基于跨国和分省数据的比较

Trade Openness and China's Socioeconomic Development:A Comparison Based on Cross-National Data as well as Cross-Regional Data within China

贸易开放到底对一个国家或地区的经济社会发展起到什么样的作用?学术界对这一问题始终争论不休。通过考察191个国家和地区的历史数据(1960～2000),发现一个国家(或地区)的对外贸易开放程度对其经济发展有着显著的积极效应。通过对31个省、市、自治区的统计分析发现,贸易开放度对一个省、市、自治区的发展指数产生了显著的、积极性作用,贸易开放度对一个省、市、自治区的发展指数的积极影响随着时间的推移会日渐减弱。对于贸易开放所带来的积极效应应该采取一种谨慎的态度,在贸易开放所带来的积极效应消失殆尽之前,必须找到替代性的策略来持续一个地区的经济社会发展。

What is the impact of trade openness upon socioeconomic development in a country or region？ Until now, the debate among scholars is far from closing. Based on the timeseries （1960 -2000） data in 191 countries/regions, it＇s found that trade openness in a country/region has significantly positive impact upon its economic development. Based on the time - series statistical analysis in 31 provincial - level units, it＇s found that trade openness in a provincial - level unit has significantly positive impact upon its development performance. Meanwhile, it＇s also found that the impact of trade openness upon its development performance would decline gradually. Therefore, a very cautious attitude should be taken toward the positive impact brought by trade openness. Before the positive impact brought by trade openness finally goes away, a substitutive strategy shall be found to sustain socioeconomic development in a region.