南水北调东线Newsvendor优化模型

Newsvendor Optimization Model for Eastern Route of South-to-North Water Diversion in China

结合南水北调东线工程实际,对南水北调东线水资源供应链系统进行了界定,考虑准市场条件下南水北调东线供应链的优化问题,在降雨服从随机分布条件下分别建立了需求与降雨无关、需求与降雨相关情形下的南水北调东线供应链Newsvendor优化模型,并进行了算例分析,研究表明:需求与降雨相关情形下的最优生产量不高于需求与降雨无关情形下的最优生产量;无论是需求与降雨无关还是需求与降雨相关情形,江苏系统供销商的最优生产量对于本地终端零售价和本地缺水成本不太敏感,随着外地批发价和外地缺水成本的增大而增大,随着持有成本的增大而减小,随着供销商的降雨量利用比率的增大而减小;其中,需求与降雨相关情形,最优生产量还随着本地终端用户的降雨量利用比率的增大而减小。论文对于南水北调工程优化运营调度的理论和实践有一定的学术价值和应用价值,同时对于丰富Newsvendor优化模型的理论和应用推广有着积极的意义。

South-to-North Water Diversion（SNWD） Project is a significant engineering to solve water shortage in north China,and is also a world-scale strategic water resource engineering related to the sustainable development of China＇s economy.Supply chain system for SNWD project is defined in the paper.Then the optimization of SNWD is studied,and Newsvendor optimization model with random rainfall for the supply Chain of are built separately under demand-rainfall related condition and demand-rainfall unrelated condition;finally numerical analysis is done and some strategic suggestions are drawn.The results show that;Optimal production amount（OPA） is not sensitive to the price of local retail terminal and the cost of water shortage either under demand-rainfall related condition or under unrelated condition;OPA increases as external wholesale price and the cost of external water shortage increase,while OPA decreases as the holding cost increases,and decreases as rainfall using rate of distributor increases under both conditions.Thereinto,OPA decreases as the terminal user＇s rainfall using rate increases under the demand-rainfall related condition.The study is of an academic and practical value for SNWD optimal operations and scheduling,and also enriches the theory and application of Newsvendor optimization model.