基于可持续发展的我国对外贸易的物质流分析

Embodied Pollution in Trade Based on Sustainable Development:Estimating the "Environmental Load Displacement" of China

本文的目的是测算开放条件下的可持续发展指数,即环境成本转移指数。本文运用物质流的方法,采用对外贸易内含污染的平衡指标(balance of embodied emissionsintrade)对中国在1976-2004年与主要贸易伙伴国的对外贸易的内含六种空气污染物污染进行了估计,结果表明,中国的总进口的空气污染排放要大于总出口,总体上对外贸易有利于中国环境质量的改善。但中国同美国和英国这两个发达国家的环境贸易条件(environmental terms of trade)在样本期内呈逐步恶化趋势。从部门结构看,2004年中美双边贸易内含污染物主要来源于工业化学和钢铁这两个部门。

The present paper sets out to aid in the development of ＂environmental load displacement＂ indicators.Developing the notion of the ＂environmental memory＂ of physical flows,we estimated embodied pollution in trade of China with our major trade partners from 1976 to 2004.We found that,during the period of analysis, embodied air pollutant emissions of import were larger than that of export in China.Overall international trade were conducive to the improvement of environmental quality in China.On the contrary,China environmental terms of trade with the United States and Britain were ＂deteriorated＂.In addition,we selected five developed countries to find that the percentage of embodied SO2 emissions in imports to SO2 domestic Emissions was increasing,therefore,the difference of environmental regulations between developing and developed countries may create an incentive for the developed countries to import the pollution-intensive product to avoid the strict environmental regulations in their countries.As to the sector structure,bilateral trade embodied emissions between China and the United States in 2004 mainly originated from chemicals and steel industries.