摘要
采用长沙马坡岭气象观测站1998～2007年的气象资料,从湖南农业统计年鉴中选取晚稻产量数据,利用3年滑动平均产量分析得到气象产量,经逐步回归模拟得出对产量影响最大的气候因子,并建立回归模型。研究表明:长沙县地区气候因子对晚稻气象产量存在显著影响。这一结果为长沙县地区水稻产量监测和预报提供了科学依据,并在此基础上提出对策建议,从而为防灾减灾决策及指导农业生产服务。
Using meteorological data from meteorological station in Mapoling of Changsha County during 1998～2007 and selecting yield data of second rice from Hunan Rural Statistics Yearbook in Changsha County to analyze 3 years moving average yield,and the meteorological yield was obtained.Then,the highest influencing climatic factor for yield was simulated by stepwise regression,and the regression model was established.The results indicated that there is a significant influence of climatic factors on meteorological yield of second rice in Changsha County,and it has provided the scientific evidence for monitoring and forecasting yield of second rice in Changsha County.Based on the results,some suggestions were proposed.
出处
《湖南农业科学》
2010年第10期42-45,共4页
Hunan Agricultural Sciences
基金
湖南省极端气象灾害预警评估技术体系研究与示范(2008FJ1006)
关键词
气候因子
晚稻产量
影响分析
战略对策
长沙县
climatic factor
yield of second rice
influence analysis
strategy
Changsha County
