耕地资源约束下欠发达地区经济增长分析——以西宁市为例

Analysis on Economic Growth of Less-developed Areas under Cultivated Land Resource Constriction Frame——A Case of Xining City

针对西宁市地区经济增长中的资源投入大、利用效率低、生态环境破坏严重等问题,结合社会和经济发展的实际,以耕地资源约束机制为指导原则和入手点,运用协整理论和自相关方法,分析西宁地区经济增长特点。结果表明,耕地变化与经济总体发展水平(GDP)相关性不显著,GDP长期变化较为平稳,但耕地面积的变化自相关不明显,这与政策性因素、产业结构有着密切关系,并据此提出相关政策建议。该研究对城市的可持续发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。

In views of the large resources,low efficiency,serious ecological damage to the environment of the economic growth as well as the social and economic development in Xining,the economic growth characteristics of Xining was analyzed based on the cultivated land resource construction by Co-integration theory and autocorrelation methods.The result indicated that the overall levels of economic development（GDP） was not mainly affected by the cultivated land resource,and the change trend of GDP was stable in long term,but the autocorrelation of cultivated land area change was not obvious,which closely related to policy factors.Above all,some suggestions were proposed.