联合预测在中国人口总量预测中的应用

The Application of Joint Prediction Method in Gross Population of China

人口问题是制约中国经济发展的重大问题之一,实行计划生育以来,我国的人口增长水平虽然放缓,但由于人口基数庞大,人口的增长数量仍然相当的可观,因此,准确的预测未来总人口数量对于制定相应的政策法规以保证经济的快速发展具有重大意义。基于过去年份的人口数据,利用ARIMA模型和回归模型来预测未来中国的人口数量,并利用联合预测将两种预测结果进行加权平均,以达到更高的预测精度,为人口预测提供了一种简单高效的预测模型。

The huge population of China has badly limited its economic growth and social development.Although the birth control has been implemented for many years to slow down the birth rate,with such an immense population base,China still sees a considerable yearly increase of population.So the accurate prediction about the future population in China would be very important for making related policies and regulations in order to ensure the economic growth.The main purpose of this paper is to provide a simple but effective method to accurately predict the future population of China.Based on the past population data,this paper uses ARIMA Model and Multivariate Linear Regression Model to predict the future population of China.According to the results of these two models,the combined prediction method is introduced to get weighted average of these two results to reach a higher level of accuracy of prediction.