“泰勒规则”在中国经济运行中的经验证据

Taylor Rule and Its Empirical Test in China's Economy

文章利用排序选择模型对"泰勒规则"进行检验,结果发现我国中央银行主要根据产出运行情况调整利率,并没有发现中央银行根据通货膨胀调整利率的相关证据。这可能与以下两个因素有关:第一,现阶段我国通货膨胀仍属于结构性通货膨胀,并不是由于货币供应量过多导致的;第二,目前我国的利率水平相对较高,国外热钱对国内冲击较大,利率提升空间受限。

The paper tests Taylor rule through ordered choice model,and finds that the people＇s bank of China adapts the interest rate to suit output growth rather than inflation.There may be two reasons leading to the above result.The first one is that inflation has the character of structural inflation and is not due to excessive money supply.The second one is the fact that the increase of interest rate is restricted in order to prevent the hot money swarming into China.