政府支出的经济增长效应分析——基于内生结构突变模型

Effect of Economic Growth in Government Expenditure——Based on the Mode of Endogenews Structural Break

重大政策调整、经济危机等都会使数据生成过程①产生结构突变,但以往研究政府支出与经济增长关系的文献却忽视了这种现象,引起检验势降低和计量结果失真。文章采用内生突变模型对中国1952—2007年的宏观数据进行分析,发现政府支出和GDP均为带结构突变的趋势平稳过程且存在同期的突变时点。进一步推断出:在某种程度上,政府支出性质决定经济增长的稳定路径,大的外部冲击或内部制度改革才能改变这种均衡路径;应对经济危机的"四万亿",只具有短期效应,而促进经济增长最根本的措施是对经济体制的综合性改革。

Because of the major policy changes and economic crisis,the data generating procedure will produce structural break,but previous literature has ignored this phenomenon on government spending and economic growth.In this paper,using endogenous structural model for testing the over macro data the period of 1952-2007,we found that government expenditure and GDP appeared trend-stationary with structural breaks and the same break point location.On this basis,the paper concluded that economic growth path depends on the effect of government spending,the power shock can change the equilibrium path.Response to the crisis,the ＂Four trillion＂ have only short-term effect for the crisis,the long term growth engine driving of the economy is domestic demand.