农业生产资料价格指数与通货膨胀率的相关分析

Correlation Analysis of Price Index of Agricultural Means of Production and Inflation Rate

农业生产资料价格指数已成为通货膨胀的早期预警指标,对中央银行货币政策的制定与调整发挥着重要的指示作用。文章首先通过对农业生产资料价格指数与通货膨胀率的现状进行分析,探讨农业生产资料价格指数与通货膨胀率的相互作用;然后运用SPASS软件对我国农业生产资料价格与通货膨胀率进行定量分析。分析结果显示:农业生产资料价格指数与通货膨胀率之间存在一个长期稳定的均衡关系,农业生产资料价格指数对通货膨胀率具有先行指示作用。最后提出,要稳定农业生产资料价格,抑制通货膨胀,就必须形成以市场为主体的价格机制,建立农业生产资料储备制度,优化农业生产资料直接补贴机制,规范农业生产资料流通经营体制。

The price index of agricultural means of production has become an early warning indicator of inflation,play an important role in the instructions to formulatation and adjust of monetary policy of the central bank.Whether fluctuations in the price of agricultural means of production would affect the price index or not,which is becoming an ongoing concern problem.This thesis probes into the interaction between the price index of agricultural means of production and the rate of inflation based on an analysis of the current situation of the price index of agricultural means of production and inflation rate.And then it makes quantitative analysis of the relations between prices of agricultural means of production and inflation by SPASS software.The results show as the following： there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the price index of agricultural means of production and inflation rate.The price index of agricultural means of production has an advance instruction on the inflation rate.Thus,it reveals the importance of the stability of prices of agricultural means to check the rate of inflation in macro-economy,and then some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.