实际利率与宏观经济：中国的若干典型特征

Real Interest Rates and Macro Economy:Typical Features of the Chinese Economy

此次金融危机过程中,国际社会开始反思单一利率政策的不足,货币政策"工具箱"似乎出现多元化的趋势。对于利率尚未完全市场化的中国,目前利率究竟能在宏观经济中发挥什么样的作用?本文采用典型事实的研究方法,本着"用数据事实说话"的基本经济学研究理念,尝试从众多的历史宏观数据中提取一些规律性的典型事实特征,找寻实际利率与宏观经济重要变量之间的有机联系,并试图得到一些启示或政策建议。

The international communities have started to rethink the shortcomings of single interest rates policy during this round of the global financial crisis.And the monetary policy toolbox seems to be more diversified.In China,interest rates are still not free floating.What kind of role would the interest rates play in the economy? Based on solid facts,this paper adopts the method of looking for typical facts to try to find out some important relationships and organic connections between real interest rates and key macroeconomics variables in China.Finally,it reaches conclusions and policy recommendations.