人口增长对经济发展的影响

The Role of Population Growth in Economic Development

本文在综述马尔萨斯以来关于人口与经济增长问题的相关人口经济理论和实证研究文献的基础上,提出人口增长对经济发展的影响不是简单的线性关系,而是复杂的非线性关系。过高的生育率和人口增长率对经济发展显然是不利的,但是中低水平生育率对经济发展的影响却是复杂的和不确定的。1990年代以来,超低生育率(lowest low fertility)在部分欧洲和亚洲国家(地区)蔓延,引发了人们对未来人口超低生育率的担忧。中国人口态势和宏观经济环境已经发生了根本性的变化,中国将面临人口老龄化和人口负增长的严峻挑战,中国目前严格的生育控制政策应该及早作出调整。

This article provides an overview of literature on the theoretical and empirical studies of the economic effects of population growth since the Thomas Malthus era.Based on that overview,this article argues that there is no simple and linear correlation between population growth and economic development.Rather,their correlation is non-linear and uncertain.High fertility and population growth rate obviously affect economic development,but the effect of moderately low fertility on economic development is quite complicated and uncertain.The spreading of lowest-low fertility among some European and Asian economies since the 1990s has caused concerns over future prospects.The population and macroeconomic situation in China have witnessed significant and fundamental changes and the country is facing serious challenges of an aging society and negative population growth.China should promptly adjust its strictly implemented family planning policy to make it in line with economic and social development.