类比、认知与毛泽东的对外政策

Analogy,Cognition,and Mao Zedong's Foreign Policy

人的认识过程经常受到认知能力有限、决策环境不确定以及信息过量等问题的制约。在这个过程中,人们经常借用类比从历史中寻找启发,帮助认知环境和制定政策。作者依据《毛泽东外交文选》中的文献,对毛泽东运用的历史类比进行梳理和分析,发现毛泽东运用类比的方式与西方领导人有明显的相似之处。借助类比的分析和解释框架,可以看出毛泽东所援引的类比不仅具有宣示和说明政策的作用,而且也充分表明毛泽东分析形势、把握环境、形成政策的认知思维过程。类比的方式虽然有不足之处,但可以揭示决策过程某些方面的细微特点,因而是研究认知和政策分析的有用工具。

The cognitive process of human beings is always hindered by the limitation of their cognitive capabilities,contextual uncertainty,as well as the overwhelming information they receive. Historical analogies are often drawn upon to help people understand environment and make policy decisions during the process. Based on the texts of Selected Works of Mao Zedong,the authors comb through and analyze the historical analogies that Mao used. They find that Mao shares with western leaders a lot of similarities in using historical analogies. By employing the analytical and interpretational framework of historical analogies,the authors also find that historical analogies Mao used not only have the function of public relations in explaining and propagandizing foreign policies but help reveal Mao's cognitive process in analyzing environment and making foreign policy. The authors conclude that analogical framework helps explain some details or subtle aspects of decision making despite its weaknesses; therefore it is an important tool in cognitive study and decision-making.