后危机时代的中国宏观调控

China's Macro-control in the Post-crisis Period

本文尝试从国际的、省际的分析以及动态的视角来总结和展望中国的宏观调控。文章首先通过经验分析,对经济波动与宏观调控进行国际比较,突出中国宏观调控的特色。接下来,通过省际分析进一步揭示中国特色宏观调控及其与主流经济学反思所形成的交集,特别是结构性调控作为"中国经验"的意义。最后是对未来中国宏观调控的展望,指出后危机时代中国宏观调控的新思维可概括为:1)把握宏观调控的主线:突出供给管理,加快结构调整;2)完善宏观调控的基础:推进市场化改革,减弱政府性驱动;3)转移宏观调控的重心:从工业化到城市化;4)拓宽宏观调控的视野:关注世界发展的中国因素,加强国际政策协调。

In an international, provincial and dynamic perspective, this study attempts to synthesize the experience of China＇ s maeroeconomic control, and provide outlook for its future path in the post-crisis period. Specifically, the paper begins an econometric investigation on the international evidence for the output fluctuations and stabilization policies between developed and developing countries, in order to show the stabilization policies with Chinese characteristics. The paper further presents ＇ Chinese experience＇ of structural macro-control by the provincial analysis and its challenge to the mainstream economics, as well as the overlap between them. Finally, looking forward to the future, the paper provides the new thinking of macro-control in post-crisis period： （1） adhering to the direction of macroeconomic control： speeding up the economic restructuring and focusing on supply- side management; （2） changing the main objective of macroeconomic control： from industrialization to urbanization; （3） perfecting the infrastructure of macroeconomic control： promoting the market-oriented reform and mitigating the government-driven effects; （4） broaden the vision of macroeconomic control： paying more attention China＇s impacts on the world development and reinforcing international policy coordination.