宁波地区下垫面日极值温度预测

Daily Extreme Temperature Forecasting of Underlying Surface in Ningbo City

根据宁波地区气象要素和草皮、砖块、沥青混凝土层、水泥混凝土层4种不同下垫面的表面温度资料,运用逐步回归统计分析方法,分析了4种下垫面表面极值温度与气象要素之间的关系,建立了各下垫面表面日最高和日最低温度的预测模型,并通过实测数据对预测模型进行了检验。结果表明:4种下垫面表面的日最高温度可表示为日最高气温、日太阳总辐射和风速的线性回归式;4种下垫面表面的日最低温度与日最低气温线性相关。模型预测值能较好地吻合实测温度。该模型可用于预测宁波地区草皮、砖块、沥青混凝土层、水泥混凝土层4种不同下垫面的极值温度,对水泥或沥青混凝土路表极值温度预测具有参考价值。

On the basis of temperature data of meteorological elements and underlying surface of grass,brick,asphalt concrete layer and cement concrete layer temperature in Ningbo City,the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature regression models of underlying surface temperature are set up using the method of multiple linear stepwise regressions,and measured temperature data are verified the prediction models.Results show that the maximum temperature of underlying surface is shown as the linear regression equatons for daily maximum air temperature,daily total solar radiation and daily average wind velocities;a linear correlation is found between the daily minimum temperature of underlying surface and daily minimum air temperature.Upon examination,the forecast temperature and measured temperature are tallied.The predicting models can be used to forecast the extreme temperature on underlying surface structure of grass,brick,asphalt concrete layer and cement concrete layer in Ningbo area,and it has the referential value for forecast asphalt and cement concrete pavement surface extreme temperature.