货币政策对房地产市场供求影响的动态测度——基于状态空间模型的实证

A Dynamic Measurement of Monetary Policy affecting the Supply and Demand of Real Estate Market

本文基于状态空间模型,利用2002～2009年的季度数据,就货币政策中间变量利率和货币供应量对房地产市场需求和供给的影响进行了动态测度,结果表明,首先相对于利率政策而言,货币供应量对于房地产市场的供求的影响要更大;其次货币政策对房地产需求的影响比其对供给的影响要大,但对二者都只有短期影响而无长期影响;此外货币政策的短期影响随时间推移逐渐趋于平稳,其一定程度表明我国的房地产市场逐渐走向成熟。本文最后根据分析结论,提出了相应的政策建议。

By ereating state space model, basing on quarterly data of 2002 -2009, we studied that how interest rate change and money supply ＇affect real-estate supply and demand. The results show： firstly, interest rate change has a smaller influence on the supply and demand of real estate market than money supply; secondly, monetary policy can affect the demand of real-estate market more severely than supply of that, although both effects act only in short term; thirdly, in recent years the elasticity of interest rate and money supply became stable, it means Chinese real- estate market is shifting to a mature market gradually. Finally, several policy recommendations were made.