我国钢铁及铁矿石需求预测

China's steel and iron ore demand forecast study

我国工业化、城镇化加快发展,需要依靠大量的钢铁原料支撑,需要大量铁矿石资源提供保障。根据工业化国家钢铁消费规律以及我国钢铁生产特征分析,今后10年我国钢铁需求和产量增长速度将趋缓。预测到2020年,我国粗钢需求量将达到6.8亿t,相当于23.8亿t的国内平均品位的铁矿石生产的粗钢量。考虑技术进步、产业结构调整及找矿新发现等因素,届时国内铁矿石产量有望达到11亿～12亿t,铁矿石对外依存度将会明显下降。

China＇s industrialization and urbanization rely on the basis raw material of massive iron and steel,thus require huge mount of iron ore.According to the steel consumption rules in industrialized countries during last 100years and the characteristics of China＇s iron and steel production,China＇s steel output growth will decline for the next 10years.By 2020China＇s crude steel demand will reach 680million tons,equivalent to the crude steel capacity from 2.38billion tons of domestic average grade iron ore.With the technical innovation and progress,industrial structure adjustment and prospecting new iron deposits and other factors,domestic iron ore production is expected to reach 11-12million tons by 2020,and foreign dependence of iron ore will be significantly reduced.