中国农产品在产销间价格传导机制研究

An Empirical Study on the Price Transmission of AgriculturalProducts between Production and Marketing in China

本文选取农产品生产价格总指数(SCJG)和食品零售价格指数(SPLS)作为产销价格信号,采用国家统计局公布的1978年-2009年的年度数据,运用向量误差修正模型(VECM)、脉冲响应函数和方差分解法对中国产地市场SCJG和销地市场SPLS的价格传递机制进行了实证分析。结果表明:从长期来看,产地市场SCJG对销地市场VE的CMSP模LS型存的在结协果整也关表系明,S,C我JG国与产L销SJG间之农间产存品在价着格正传相导关的性长,S期CJ均G衡每关变系动制1%约,引着发短销期地价市格场波S动PL,S其变误动差1修.08正0%项;(vecm)的系数为0.58,符合正向修正机制,变量向均衡方向的调整速度较快,且这种制约作用能自动减弱价格之间的偏离,促使各种价格走向均衡。从短期看,脉冲响应函数和方差分解的分析结果显示,LSJG的上涨对SCJG的传导路径顺畅,但SCJG对SPLS的价格传导存在1期滞后,且产地的农产品市场价格对销地市场的传递效应随着时间的推移越来越明显,而销地市场SPLS对产地市场SCJG的影响逐渐增加但效果却微乎其微。为此,我国要加强产地农产品生产者价格形成机制的动态研究,不断健全我国农产品生产成本动态监测预警系统,合理引导农民生产,推动国内农业健康稳定发展。

The price transmission of China＇s agricultural products from the origin market to thesales market was analyzed in the present work, which would provide a basis for government toformulate macro-control policies related to agricultural product prices. The agricultural productsprice index （SCJG） and food retail price index （SPLS） were investigated. Based on annual data forthe period 1978-2009, the price transmission mechanism from the origin market SCJG to the salesmarket SPLS in China was examined using the vector error correction model （VECM）, impulseresponse functions, and variance decomposition method. Results indicated that there was aco-integration relationship between the origin market price of agricultural products and the foodretail price in the long run. Positive correlation between SCJG and SPLS was observed,demonstrated by that a change of 1% in SCLG could cause a 1.080% change in LSJG. The resultsfrom the vector error correction model showed that short-term price fluctuations were essentiallyrestricted by the long-term equilibrium relationship of the price transmission of China＇sagricultural products from the origin market to the sales market. The coefficient of VECM in theVEC model was 0.58, which is essentially consistent with the positive correction mechanism. Thismeans a fast response of variables adjusting to the equilibrium. Moreover, the deviation betweenprices could be automatically alleviated by that restriction, promoting a variety of prices toequilibrium. In the short term, the analysis results from the impulse response function and variancedecomposition method showed that pathways from retail food prices to agricultural productionprices were relatively smoothed, but there was a first-order lag of SCJG to SPLS on pricetransmission. Furthermore, the transmission effect of agricultural product price from the originmarket to the sales market was increasingly obvious as time went forward. The impact of the foodretail market price on agricultural product price in the origin market increased gradually but theeffect was negligible. Agricultural production costs and the dynamic monitoring and warningsystem should be continuously improved, which can guide rational agriculture production andpromote stable development of domestic agriculture.