中国木质林产品贸易流量与潜力研究:引力模型方法

Trade Flow and Potentiality of China's Timber-Forest Products:A Gravity Model

以森林资源为主要原料投入的木质林产品的贸易问题已经引起了业内人士的广泛关注。对中国木质林产品贸易流量与潜力进行研究,有助于了解当前木质林产品贸易的影响因素,并对中国与其他国家之间未来的木质林产品贸易潜力做出合理的预测。本文在传统引力模型基础上,引入具有"林产品"特色的要素禀赋、森林认证等变量,运用1999年到2008年这10年间中国对28个木质林产品贸易伙伴国的面板数据进行实证分析,结果表明:①APEC的有关贸易安排和贸易双方的经济规模对中国木质林产品贸易流量的影响最大,系数分别为0.849186和0.569832;②距离因子对中国木质林产品贸易仍有较大抑制作用,约为40%;③要素禀赋差异与双边贸易流量呈正相关,系数为0.075871;④森林认证在中国木质林产品贸易中整体上已经倾向于作为一种积极因素存在而不是贸易壁垒;⑤中国对俄、美、英、德等重要贸易伙伴国存在"过度贸易"而对多数亚洲国家存在"贸易不足"。

The production and supply of timber-forest products（TFPs）are primarily from harvesting and utilizing forest resources.China is now becoming a big country around the globe as far as TFPs＇production,processing,consumption,import,and export are concerned.China＇s trade activities in TFPs would affect the world forestry development as well as the forest environment.It is thereby necessary to carry out research on the trade issue of China＇s TFPs.Previous research seems to be concentrated primarily on its commodity structure and geographic direction,welfare and relief,and environmental effects,falling short of studies on the trade flow and potentiality under new circumstances.Empirical tests have proved that the gravity model appears to be effective in this regard.By applying the gravity model to investigate China＇s TFPs trade, meaningful information regarding factors affecting China＇s TFPs trade would be obtained.In the meanwhile,the trade potentiality as for China with its partners in the TFPs field could be reasonably predicted.In the paper,several variables characterizing forest products,like factor endowment and forest certification,were introduced into a traditional gravity model.By analyzing panel data of China with its 28 partners in the TFPs field,it was revealed that：1）trade arrangements from Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation（APEC）and economic scales from two parties are the important elements in trade flow,with coefficients of 0.85 and 0.57,respectively. This means that we need to seize the opportunity to enhance our comprehensive strength and economic aggregate so as to further play a constructive role in APEC;2）distance remains a constraint to the TFPs trade of China,showing a role of roughly 40%.This implies that we should reduce processes of cargo clearance and develop new shipment technology as well as logistics channel,in order to reduce the transaction costs;3）the difference from factor endowment is positively related to the bilateral trade flow,with a coefficient of 0.08,which suggests that we should make efforts to trade with countries whose factor endowment differs greatly from China;4） in China＇s TFPs trade,forest certification tends to be a positive factor instead of a trade barrier. However,its positive role is insignificant,with a coefficient of only 0.04.This implies that we should continue to advocate and enhance the forest certification and strive for even more environment-sensitive customers so as to promote sustainable supply in forest resources and expand proportion in international market;and 5）there is an excessive trade between China and its important partners,such as Russia,the U.S.,UK,and Germany,but less trade with many Asian countries.This suggests that we should strengthen the division and cooperation with Asian neighbors to prevent from being over-dependent on Euro-America markets.