耕地和劳动力禀赋对农村劳动力外出务工影响的实证分析——以宁夏南部山区为例

Impacts of Household Labor and Land Endowment on Rural-to-Urban Labor Migration:A Case Study on Mountainous Areas of Southern Ningxia

随着城市化和工业化的发展,中国农业劳动力机会成本也随之上升,劳动力务农机会成本上升会推动农业劳动力向城市流动。但是,劳动力流动受诸多因素影响,对单个农户而言,在一定的国家宏观政策和市场条件下,家庭结构、土地禀赋等是影响其劳动力外出务工的关键要素。为回答在当前我国劳动力务农机会成本上升和农业利好政策条件下,农户耕地属性和劳动力禀赋对其劳动力析出的影响,本文以宁夏南部山区为例,采用农户调查数据,利用二分类Logistic模型,分析家庭耕地和劳动力禀赋对农村劳动力外出务工的影响。研究结果表明,农户土地属性和劳动力构成对其劳动力析出过程有显著影响,具体为:劳动力禀赋对劳动力流动过程有显著影响,家庭劳动力男女构成不同,其成员的析出也不同,导致家庭内部劳动力就业结构的分化现象;耕地属性也影响劳动力流动过程,土地收入和外出务工收入是农户决定其成员是否流动所参考的重要依据。

With the development of urbanization and industrialization,the opportunity cost of farm labor has significantly increased in China,especially during the last two decades.The rise of the opportunity cost of farm labor primarily affects the behavior of household＇s resources allocation and production decisions,resulting in agricultural land-use changes and rural development,i.e.,it affects the decision of farm households in time allocation of family members between crop production and off-farm wage employment because the decision making rests on the calculation of member＇s opportunity cost of on-farm with return to crop production.If the income from off-farm is larger than the return to crop production,households tend to allocate more members to wage employment.However,there are some factors affecting rural-to-urban labor migration.As for the individual household being faced with the same macro policy and market circumstances,family structure and arable land endowment are the key factors that impact the decision of farm households in time allocation of family members.In this paper,we explored the link between labors rural-to-urban migration and arable land endowment in ecologically vulnerable regions using household survey data obtained in a mountainous area of southern Ningxia.It was found that there is evidence of the linkage between off-farm employment and household＇s labor as well as land characteristics.It was indicated that the household labor and land endowment have impacts on rural-to-urban labor migration.In terms of the simulations,explanatory variables with high statistical significance（p〈0.05）encompass the number of male laborers,the number of old laborers,and the acreage of slope lands.Meanwhile,the logistic model showed significant goodness of fit（i.e.,the Hosmer and Lemeshow test was statistical significance）,and predictive accuracy（i.e.,the area under the ROR Curve accounts for 85.7%of the total area）.It was also found that the household labor and land endowment have a marked impact on rural labor mobility, suggesting that labors with the greatest comparative advantage will be allocated to wage employment.On the contrary,labors with comparative disadvantages will be allocated to on-farm activities.Small households with more infertile lands prefer to allocate their members to off-farm employment.Households with more arable land tend to be of less mobility.Households with more slope lands and dry lands tend to participate in off-farm employment.