能源结构约束与中国经济增长——基于能源“尾效”的计量检验

Energy Structural Constraint and China's Economic Growth:Metrology Analysis Based on Energy "Tail Drag"

中国经济已进入快速增长的轨道,但由于受增长方式局限性的影响,这样的快速增长存在众多约束,其中能源的总量不足和结构偏差已经成为最为突出的发展瓶颈。尤其是能源的结构问题对我国可持续发展构成了严峻的挑战。根据Romer的假说,由于自然资源的限制,单位劳动力平均产出最终将呈下降趋势,从而存在由于经济增长中资源环境要素消耗导致的"增长尾效"。本文在借鉴Romer的经济增长"尾效"假说的基础上,放宽了其关于经济规模不变的假定,对我国经济增长的能源结构性约束进行了量化。结果显示从阻碍经济增长的角度来看,石油的尾效值最大(0.0648),其次是天然气(0.0324)、水电风电核电(0.0275),煤炭最小(0.0096)。这意味着目前我国能源利用的主要矛盾并不是能源的总量约束,而是能源的结构性约束。能源的结构性矛盾已成为我国未来能源问题的软肋。

Energy resources are fundamental material basis for the survival and development of human being.Economy growth is largely dependent on resources and energy.According to the assumption by David Romer,real economic growth shows a declining trend because of the limitations associated with natural resources,i.e.,there exists a certain drag effect caused by the consumption of natural resources.Currently,China＇s economy has entered a rapid growth period. Because of the limitations of the mode of economic growth,however,there are many constraints on it,involving lack of energy and structure deviation.These two factors have significantly restrained the sustainable and rapid growth of economy.Particularly,the structure of energy poses a big challenge to the sustainable development of China.In this paper,on the basis of economic growth＂tail drag＂hypothesis,we broadened the assumptions regarding economic scale and measured the energy structural constraint on economic growth.Results showed that as for constraints on economic growth,oil is largest（0.0648）,followed by natural gas（0.0324）, hydropower,wind power,nuclear power（0.0275）,and coal（0.0096）.In other words,due to the consumption of oil,natural gas,hydropower,wind power,nuclear power,and coal,China＇s economic growth rate has been reduced on overage 6.48%,3.24%,2.75%,and 0.96% annually during the period 1978-2007.Such quantities are considered rather large.Results also showed that the drag on economy for each type of energy varies greatly.This means that the principal contradiction in China＇s energy use is not the total amount of energy,but the structural constraint of energy,which will become more significant for China＇s future energy utilization.It is suggested that the dynamic effect be placed more emphasis on and long-term strategies as to energy consumption be taken and implemented firmly to promote the economy if we target GDP per capita in 2020 four times of that in 2000.If we,however,continued the policy of factors inputs which have been enforced during these years,it would remain a big challenge to achieve such economic goals.Additional work should be done to ensure energy consumption and the sustainable development of economy by appropriately regulating and controlling a variety of factors by the macro-control of government,ultimately leading to sustainable energy utilization.