民用航空动力技术风险评估的量化方法

Quantity method of technical risk assessment for civil aero-engine

通过层次分析法和质量功能展开,将用户对先进民用航空发动机的总需求逐层展开到具体技术并求得其权重,同时采用技术成熟度等级对各具体技术的风险水平进行量化,综合具体技术的权重和风险值计算得到整个发动机的总技术风险.该方法不仅可以评估整机系统,对其部件系统同样有效.以某型在研涡扇发动机的涡轮部件为例,应用该方法对其进行数值模拟,得到了定量的技术风险评估结果.

The weight of specific technology was obtained by using analytic hierarchy process and quality function development,which can develop customer＇s aggregate demand for the advance civil aero-engine layer by layer until specific technology,the risk level of specific technology was quantified by the technology readiness levels,and then,the overall risk of the whole aero-engine could be calculated by integrated analysis of weight and risk of specific technology.This method can assess the whole aero-engine as well as its component system.As an example,the quantitative risk result is obtained through simulation of the turbine component of an under-researched turbofan-engine.