山区小型水库除险加固工程投资风险分析

Investment Risk Analysis of Treatment and Reinforcement for Small Reservoir in Mountainous Area

针对山区小型水库的出险加固工程,以水库的使用期为时间单位,通过蒙特卡洛法随机产生洪峰系列,求出水库产生效益的概率分布,并推求水库除险加固的支出性投资的分布模式,进而采用等效分布法推求小水库除险加固工程经济决策指标的风险率。通过对主要参数的灵敏度分析,使决策指标更加符合客观实际。

Regarding the lifetime of reservoir as a time unit,Monte Carlo method is used to simulate series of flood for the treatment and reinforcement of small reservoir in mountainous area.The distribution of flood-control benefit will be fitted.Meantime the distribution models of the expenses are established for risk analysis.The risk index of treatment and reinforcement engineering invest is calculated with an equivalent distribution method.Sensitivity analyses of main parameters are carried out to make the result more practical.