国际天然气市场变化与中俄天然气合作前景

Prospects for Sino-Russian gas cooperation amid developments in the international gas market

中俄天然气合作可谓一波三折。金融危机爆发以后,全球天然气供求形势发生逆转,特别是美国页岩气和世界LNG的大发展,给国际天然气市场带来深刻变化。俄罗斯天然气工业首当其冲,面临诸多挑战:天然气生产和出口双双下降;在欧洲天然气市场遇到了强有力的对手,欧洲对其管道天然气的依赖开始下降;欧洲进口天然气价格与油价挂钩的情况正逐步改变,根据市场确定价格正在成为一种趋势;Gazprom在管道天然气运输方面的垄断地位也遭遇挑战。此外,在前期中俄天然气合作进展缓慢的情况下,中国加快发展进口LNG和中亚管道天然气,初步形成了天然气进口多元化的格局;同时,预测认为中国的页岩气开发前景广阔。在上述背景下,俄罗斯开始致力于能源出口多元化。扩大向东方的出口对于俄罗斯未来的能源工业的发展意义重大,中国在俄罗斯天然气出口战略中的地位将提升到一个新的高度。中俄两国正共同关注国际天然气市场变化带来的重要契机,争取双边天然气合作尽早取得实质性成果。

Sino-Russian gas cooperation has taken many twists and turns.Post-financial-crisis reversal in the relationship of natural gas supply to demand and the spectacular development of U.S.shale gas and global LNG have brought profound changes to the international gas market.Russia's natural gas industry has been severely affected and faces many challenges.Gas production and exports have declined.Europe has reduced dependence on Russian pipeline gas because of many new powerful players in the European natural gas market.The price linkage between natural gasand crude is gradually changing.Natural gas pricing is becoming more market determined.Gazprom's natural gas pipeline monopoly has been challenged.In addition,China boosted import of LNG and Central Asian pipeline gas when initial progress in Sino-Russian gas cooperation was slow.China's gas imports diversified at the outset.Meanwhile shale gas is forecast to have wide development potential in China.Against that background,Russia has begun tocommit to diversifying energy exports.Eastward expansion of exports is of profound significance to Russia's future energy development.China plays an increasingly significant role in Russia's gas export strategy.Both China and Russia have been alert to the big opportunities presented by changes in the international natural gas market.They are working toward mutual natural gas cooperation breakthroughs as immediate as possible.