世界乙烯工业发展现状与展望

Present and future status of the global ethylene industry

受全球经济低迷、乙烯新增产能投产以及市场需求疲软的影响,2009年世界乙烯产能达到1.33亿吨,需求量为1.12亿吨,装置开工率为84.2%,产能过剩约1500万吨,占需求量的13.4%。中东地区多数项目推迟投产;中国和沙特乙烯产能增长迅速,地位进一步巩固;装置规模和集中度继续提高,2009年全球266家乙烯生产厂的平均规模为50.0万吨/年,同比增长4.0%;国际大型石油石化公司仍是乙烯生产的最主要力量,2009年世界十大乙烯生产公司的产能总计6121.8万吨,占世界总产能的46.0%;中东地区成本优势十分显著。未来5年世界乙烯产能还将稳定增长,新增产能主要集中在中东和亚太地区;东北亚将成为世界乙烯需求量最大的地区,占全球乙烯市场需求比例将由2000年的21%增长到25%,中东将由7%上升到16%,北美将由33%降至24%。具有原料优势的中东地区以及具有市场潜力的亚洲地区大量乙烯新增产能的陆续投产,必将导致亚洲、北美以及西欧地区一些竞争力差的装置永久性关闭。

In the wake of global economic recession and consequent weakness in ethylene capacity growth and market demand,the world cracker operating rate in 2009 was only 84.2%.Aglobal ethylene glut continues.The surplus is approximately 15 million tons,representing 13.4% of global demand.Most planned Middle East ethylene projects have been postponed.Most of the new capacity in the Asia-Pacific region is in China.Ethylene capacity has grown rapidly in China and Saudi Arabia,consolidating those countries' status as major refiners.The scale and degree of concentration continue togrow.The world had 266 ethylene plants in 2009.Average scale is 500,000 tons per year,increasing by 4.0% year-over-year.Huge international petroleum and petrochemical companies are still the main providers.The capacity of the world's top 10 ethylene companies is 61.218 million tons,representing 46.0% of total world capacity in 2009.The Middle East enjoys a remarkable cost advantage in ethylene production.Global ethylene capacity will grow steadily inthe next 5 years,with additions mainly in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region.Northeast Asia will becomethe biggest ethylene demand area,accounting for 25% of total demand compared to 21% in 2000.The Middle Eastwill rise to 16% from 7%,while North America falls to 24% from 33%.The addition of Middle East and Asia-Pacific capacity will force some uncompetitive crackers to shutdown permanently.Day-to-day competition among ethylene producers will be intense,particularly to meet Chinese market demand.Mergers and reorganizations are inevitable.Management of scale and intensification will be the obvious drivers.Configuration of the global ethylene industry will change along with it.