我国外汇储备、汇率变动对通货膨胀的影响--基于国际收支视角的分析

Influence of Changes in Foreign Exchange Reserves and Exchange Rates on Inflation in China:An Analysis from the Viewpoint of International Payments

本文在对外汇储备变动和汇率变动对物价水平产生影响的传导机制进行理论分析的基础上,运用VEC模型检验了在引入汇率因素的情况下外汇储备变动对通货膨胀的影响。分析表明,外汇储备变动可以通过货币供应量变动对通货膨胀产生影响,汇率变动也可以对通货膨胀产生影响,但是影响均比较小。而且,我国汇率变动会削弱外汇储备变动通过货币供应量对通货膨胀产生的影响。

This paper analyzes the transmission mechanisms for foreign exchange reserves,exchange rates and price levels on the basis of the theories.Then,this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism with VEC model.The analysis shows that there is a relationship between the changes in foreign exchange reserves and inflation,with changes in the money supply serving as the link.There is also a relationship between the changes in exchange rates and inflation.However,both of the two factors have less influence on inflation,and changes in exchange rates could undermine the influence of foreign exchange reserves on inflation.