中美日三国经常项目失衡原因比较研究——基于跨期均衡的视角

Comparative Analysis on the Causes of Current Account Imbalance for China,America and Japan:Evidence from Intertemporal Model

本文以2002年第一季度到2009年第三季度相关数据为统计对象,采用跨期均衡分析方法对比研究中国、美国和日本3个国家经常项目失衡的原因,结果发现:社会福利制度完善,由此形成长期的依赖性超前消费行为习惯是美国持续性逆差的内在原因;日本持续性顺差的原因是经济增长动力不足,消费者对未来收入增长缺乏信心;过于重视经济发展速度,忽视经济内部消费者福利合理安排是当前中国经常项目巨额顺差的内在原因。相对于发达国家,中国治理经常项目失衡的关键措施不在增加收入而在减少刚性支出预期。

The paper uses intertemporal model of current account to analyze the causes of imbalance for China,America and Japan.It is found that the perfect system of social welfare and the resulting excessive consumption cause the large deficit for America;low economic growth rate and no confidence for future cause the lasting surplus for Japan;and focusing on economic growth rate instead of human welfare is the cause of great surplus for china.Compared with the developed countries,the key of getting rid of the imbalance in China is to decrease the expectation of inevitable expenditure in future instead of increasing the expectation of income.