基于生态足迹的江苏省生态安全动态研究

STUDIES ON ECOLOGICAL SECURITY DYNAMICS BASED ON ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

基于生态足迹理论,引入生态压力指数、生态占用指数和生态经济协调指数作为评价区域生态安全的指标,并构建了生态安全评价标准。对江苏省1999～2008年的生态安全进行动态的定量分析评价。结果显示:江苏省1999～2008年的人均生态足迹由1.526hm2逐年增加到3.08hm2,而人均生态承载力则呈现波动式下降(从0.522hm2降至0.477hm2),万元GDP的生态足迹自1.43hm2下降到0.78hm2;生态赤字则由1999年的1.004hm2持续上升到2008年的2.603hm2;生态压力指数从1999年的2.922增至2008年的6.462,同期的生态占用指数亦从0.694增至1.399,生态经济协调指数则从1999年的0.237下降至2008年的0.217。数据表明江苏省的经济发展处于不可持续状态,整体上生态安全趋势不容乐观,生态压力加大。同时随着技术水平的提高,单位产值所消耗的资源不断减少。社会经济发展与生态环境的协调性亦有所下降,且处于很差的状态。同时对未来的生态安全状况进行了线性预测分析,并提出了适当的措施。

Based on the principle of ecological footprint,the paper constructed the new evaluation index system of ecological security and introduced the model of ecological tension index,ecological occupancy index and ecological economic coordination index.The paper analyzed the trends of ecological security in the Jian-gsu Province from 1999to 2008.The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint increased from 1.526hm2 to 3.08hm2,while the per person ecological capacity decreased from 0.522hm2 to 0.477hm2,and the per capita ecological deficit changed from 1.004hm2 to 2.603hm2 during 1999to 2008.The ecolog-ical footprint of million in GDP dropped from 1.43hm2 to 0.78hm2.The ecological tension index increased from 2.922in 1999to 6.462in 2008.The ecological occupancy index increased from 0.694to 1.399.The ecological economic coordination index increased from 0.237to 0.217.All the quantitative data indicated that the economical development model of Jiangsu Province was not sustainable,and the ecological security is not optimistic on the whole.The social economic development did not get along well with ecological environment,and worse still,in bad situations.Finally,the article analyzed the ecological security status on the future and proposed some appropriate measures.