NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON ONSET BASED ON GRAPES MODEL AND EXPERIMENTS ON INITIAL MODEL FIELDS

The Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES), a limited-area regional model, was used to simulate the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon. In view of the relatively insufficient information about the initial field in simulation predictions, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B (AMSU-B) data from a NOAA satellite were introduced to improve the initial values. By directly using the 3-dimensional variational data assimilation system of GRAPES, two schemes for assimilation tests were designed. In the design, Test 1 (T1) assimilates both sounding and AMSU-B data, and Test 2 (T2) assimilates only the conventional sounding data, before applying the model in simulation forecasts. Comparative experiments showed that the model was very sensitive to initial fields and successful in reproducing the monsoon onset, allocation of high- and low-level wind fields during the pentad of onset, and the northward advancement of the monsoon and monsoon rain bands. The scheme, however, simulated rainfall and the location of the subtropical high with deviations from observations. The simulated location of the subtropical high was more westward and northward and the simulated rainfall for the South China Sea was larger and covered a broader area.