指数平滑系数的优化研究

Study on Optimization of Coefficient of Exponential Smoothing

平滑系数的选取是影响指数平滑法预测精度的瓶颈因素,实际应用中更多的是依靠经验选取,缺乏科学性。本文通过对指数平滑系数与权系数特性的分析,提出了对平滑系数优化的新方法,并将该优化方法在ERP项目具体实施中的生产经营目标预测时进行了验证,取得了满意的效果。

The selection of coefficient of exponential smoothing is the key factor which influences the precision level based on method of exponential smoothing.In practical applications,people choose coefficients of exponential smoothing mainly depended on their experiences so that the prediction results were short of reasonable values.The coefficient of exponential smoothing and right coefficient characteristic were analyzed and new method of coefficient of exponential smoothing was presented for optimization of prediction in this paper.Moreover,this new method was used for predicting and verifying the objective valuation of production operations in implementing of ERP project,and the satisfactory results were obtained.