黄河干、支流径流量与输沙量年际变化特征

Interannual change characteristics of runoff and sediment load from the mainstream and major tributaries of the Yellow River

收集黄河流域干、支流21个主要水文控制站1950-2007年间年径流量与年输沙量时序数据,采用TFPW(Trend-free pre-whitening)-MK法检验年径流与年输沙长期变化趋势,并利用贝叶斯变点分析方法诊断时序数据突变点。结果表明,黄河干(除唐乃亥外)、支(除氵状头站年径流外)流年径流量与年输沙量均呈现显著下降;干、支流年径流与年输沙序列下降变化中均存在显著突变点,除干流年径流序列在1968年前后和1985年前后有共同突变点外,其它序列突变点出现时间极少一致;干、支流年径流量与年输沙量的突变式下降是对流域降水变化与人为干扰复合响应的结果。

We collected the consecutive 58-year（1950-2007） runoff and sediment load data recorded at the twenty-one gauging stations along the mainstream and major tributaries of the Yellow River.The TFPW（Trend-free pre-whitening）-MK statistic test was used to estimate the long term trends in the runoff and sediment load time series.Change points of runoff and sediment load time series were determined by the Bayesian analysis approach.Except the Tangnaihai,annual runoff and sediment load at the gauging stations along the mainstream of the Yellow River significantly dropped.Annual runoff and sediment from the tributaries of the Yellow River（not including the runoff at the Zhuangtou） also decreased significantly.Different significant change points of runoff and sediment load are detected at all gauging stations with a negative change trend.The mainstream runoff time series share two common change points which occurred around 1968 and 1985.The occurrence time of few change points of other three time series is same.It is concluded that abrupt downward change of runoff and sediment load from the mainstream and major tributaries of the Yellow River is the composite response to precipitation change and human interference in the basin.