基于趋势外推模型和灰色系统模型的深圳保费收入总量预测

Prediction of the Gross Premium Income in Shenzhen by Trend Extrapolation Model and Gray Model

全国及各地区正在开展保险业"十二五"规划工作,保费收入总量是常用的指标之一。本文分别利用趋势外推模型和灰色系统模型对深圳保费收入总量进行预测,并比较两种模型的拟合精度,得出2010-2015年深圳保费收入总量预测结果,并提出了实现目标的建议,希望能为保险业预测工作提供一些参考方法。

All regions in the country are doing the 12th Five-year plan of insurance industry.The gross premium income（GPI） is one of the common indices.This article predicts the GPI in Shenzhen by Trend Extrapolation Model and Gray Model,compares the fitting accuracy of the two models,obtains the forecasting result of GPI in Shenzhen during 2010 to 2015,and puts forward some suggestions to achieve the goal.It hopes to provide some method suggestions to the prediction work of the insurance industry.