基于SD的电网规划方案技术经济评价方法研究

Power Grid Planning and Economic Evaluation Based on System Dynamics

基于电网规划方案的特点及影响,提出了电网规划方案评价中应考虑的因素与相应评价指标,针对因素间的因果联系建立了技术、财务、国民经济等的评价子系统,深入分析各子系统间逻辑关联,采用因果关系图构建了完整的电网规划方案的系统动力学(SD)评价模型,并应用于某市某阶段电网规划项目的仿真计算,验证了模型的有效性。

This paper analyzes the factors which have influence on the evaluation of power grid planning and related evaluation indexes.With these factors and the causality,system dynamics evaluation model of power grid planning,made up by technical evaluation subsystem,financial evaluation subsystem and economic evaluation subsystem,is built,which reflects the process and influences of power grid planning and the trends of the evaluation indexes.Finally,an example of power grid planning is simulated and the feasibility of system dynamics evaluation model is proved.