摘要
基于产业链角度分析了电能消费碳排放关键影响因素,采用Divisia指数分解法研究了1990~2007年间我国燃料结构、发电结构、辅助服务及输配损失对碳排放的影响,并给出三类情景下2010~2030年间电力部门的碳排放总量及电能消费的碳排放系数预测。结果表明,我国电力部门2030年的CO2排放总量为49×108~60×108t,相应的电能消费碳排放系数为0.407~0.493,为电力工业未来减排目标及减排途径的设计提供了参考。
Key factors affecting the carbon emissions from power consumption are analyzed from the perspective of industry chain.Then,the impacts of fuel mix,power structure,ancillary services,transmission and distribution losses on carbon emissions between 1990 and 2007 years in China are studied by Divisia index decomposition method.Eventually,carbon emissions and coefficient from 2010 to 2030 years are predicted under three scenarios.The results show that the carbon emissions from power sector will be 4.9 billion tons to 6.0 billion tons and the corresponding coefficient will be 0.407 to 0.493 in 2030 year,which provides reference for design of emission reduction goal and approach of power industry in future.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2010年第11期166-168,共3页
Water Resources and Power
关键词
碳排放
排放系数
电能消费
情景分析
carbon emissions
emission coefficient
power consumption
scenario analysis
