中国外债观察:货币政策值得关注

Observation on China's External Debt:More Attention to Monetary Policy

本文通过近10年来中国外债余额及变化量与贸易进出口、外商来华直接投资和货币供应量(M2)之间的关系进行量化相关性分析,发现M2与外债的相关性更为明显,而非通常认为的进出口或直接投资,并进而得出需更加关注货币政策与外债之间联系的结论。这对我国外债管理实践提供了一个新的视角和参考。

Using relevant quantitative analysis on relationships between external debt balance and its changes and main balance of payments items such as goods import/export,foreign direct investment and money supply（M2） in the past ten years,this article concludes that M2 has stronger relevance with external debt in China.Contrary to the conventional emphasis on external economic sectors such as import/export volume and foreign direct investment,this article draws the conclusion that more attention is needed to monitor the connection between monetary policy and external debt.This article provides a new direction and reference to China＇s external debt management practice.In addition,due to limited data availability,more in depth research in this area still needed.