基于宏观经济动态均衡的中国通胀压力均衡调整分析

An Analysis of Current Inflation Pressure Balance Adjustment in China Based on the Dynamic Equilibrium of Macro Economic Perspective

2009年下半年以来,我国经济逐渐复苏,而通胀的压力也进一步增大。基于宏观经济动态均衡的角度,现对经济通胀压力进行量化分析。在进行量化分析前构建了一个求解宏观经济动态均衡的简单模型,并将中国宏观经济中的五大变量代入该模型进行了计量分析,得出了中国宏观经济中五大变量的均衡值。然后,通过经验分析,考察了1979年以来我国物价运行的动态均衡轨迹。最后,依据计量数据和经验分析,阐述了当前通胀压力的均衡调整策略。

Since the latter half of 2009,China＇s economy has been in recovery as well as further increasing inflationary pressure. From the angle of macroeconomic dynamic equilibrium,the paper gives a quantitative analysis of the inflationary pressures. Before the analysis,a simple model is designed for solving the dynamic equilibrium in China and the five macroeconomic variables of China have been put into the model to obtain the equilibrium values. Then,through empirical analysis,the article studies the running track of the inflation dynamic equilibrium in China since 1979. Finally,according to the measurement data and empirical analysis,this paper expounds the current inflation pressure balance ad-justment strategy.