带压开采煤层底板突水安全可靠性分析

Reliability analysis of water inrush from the confined aquifer above the seam floor during mining

为合理评价孙疃煤矿10煤层带压开采的安全可靠性,建立了10煤层隔水底板稳定性可靠度分析模型。考虑底板隔水层厚度、底板岩石容重、抗拉强度等参数为随机变量,采用斯列萨列夫安全隔水层厚度计算公式建立极限状态方程。在研究随机变量概型的基础上,采用JC法、最优化法以及基于最优化的蒙特卡罗法计算隔水底板的可靠度以及失效概率,并探讨了该矿10煤层安全开采的可靠指标,避免了单纯依据定值作为突水判据的某些不合理性。

In order to evaluate the safety and reliability of mining above the confined aquifer in Sun Tuan coal mine,this paper established the model of reliability analysis of the No.10 seam floor.By considering thickness of water-resisting floor,rock bulk density and tensile strength as random variables,the Slisalif formula was used to establish the limit state equation.Based on the study of probability model of random variables,JC method,optimization method and Monte Carlo method were used to calculate the reliability index and the failure probability of water-resisting floor,respectively.The reliability index of safety mining for No.10 seam was discussed in the work.The results indicate that certain irrationality,which only relies on the results of the definite value analysis method,can be avoided when the reliability analysis theory is used as the water inrush criterion.