基于耕地压力分析的河北省粮食安全保障策略

Analysis of Food Security Strategy Based on Arable Land Stress in Hebei

为了给政府粮食安全保障策略的相关决策提供一定的理论支持和参考,在耕地-粮食-人口系统动态分析的基础上,对河北省1980—2007年耕地压力指数的动态变化及成因进行了分析。结果表明:1980年以来河北省耕地面积及其人均量持续减少;粮食总产量及人均产量呈现增加—减少—增加的变化趋势;最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数呈现减小—增大—减小的相似变化趋势。并探讨了缓解耕地压力的调控策略,即为保持区域内一定数量的耕地和种植高产作物是缓解耕地压力的重点。

The dynamic change and reason of the arable land stress index from 1980 to 2007 were analyzed based on the dynamic analysis of an arable land-food-population system to provide the theoretical support and reference for the correlated decision making of food security strategy in Hebei province.The results showed that the arable land area and per capita arable land quantity continuously decreased since 1980,the total food output and per capita food output presented the variation trend of increase-decrease-increase and the minimum per capita arable land area and arable land stress index presented the variation trend of decrease-increase-decrease as well.The paper puts forward that the regulating strategies of relieving arable land stress are keeping a certain amount of arable land area and planting crops with high yield.