气候保护及其对社会经济影响的模拟研究

Introduction to the research of impact on economy from climate protection with modeling

对国际上气候变化与应对气候变化的气候保护经济影响模拟研究状况进行了讨论,认为气候保护研究应该侧重模拟分析;评价了在IPCC第四次评估报告中使用的排放情景专门报告中依赖的6个模型特点,指出IPCC的SRES模型不仅忽视了内生技术进步和国际GDP溢出,而且是缺少反映人类应对行为的被动型模型,现在需要发展主动型模型。还讨论了我国面对气候变化与应对气候变化的气候保护模拟研究的不足,认为我国过分依赖适应气候变化分析的统计学模型,而不是适合气候保护研究的动力学模型。建议开展经济动力学模型、非线性CGE模型和基于自主体的模拟模型研究,提出全球气候保护的中国方案。本文介绍了LRICE模型框架,该模型的特点是干中学的技术进步,能反映发展中国家通过技术进步减少二氧化碳排放的潜力,更接近真实情况。

In this paper,we discussed the international research response to climate change,climate change and the economic impact of climate protection,and suggested that new research should focus on climate protection modeling and simulation.This article evaluated 6 models of the emissions scenarios used to rely on specialized report features in Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC,and pointed out the IPCC＇s SRES models ignore the endogenous technological progress and international GDP spillover,and attention focused on the economic effects of the passive response to climate change,so that we need to develop a proactive model now. The article also discussed the research in climate protection deficiencies in China,including reliance on foreign software and statistical models,the lack of dynamics simulation,stressed that the urgent task is to develop a new model of macroeconomic dynamics,nonlinear CGE model and simulation model based on agent,and made China-program about the global climate protection. Finally the author introduced the LRICE model framework which was developed by Wang,Wu Jing and others.The model,characterized by technological advances in learning by doing,reflects the fact that developing countries will reduce carbon dioxide emissions through technological progress,which is closer to the real world.