21世纪初我国旱涝灾害预测

Forecast of drought and waterlogging in China at beginning of 21 century

以太阳活动为中心，深入分析了松花江流域的旱涝规律，进而研究我国水资源可持续利用问题。预测２１世纪初的２０多年黑龙江省和我国都会出现枯水周期，这将成为我国农业可持续发展的严重制约因素。为此提出了加强水资源管理和依靠科技进步等相应对策。

This article analyses drought and waterlogging rule in Songhuajiang river basin according the sun activity and studies the question of water resources sustainable utilization. It forecasts that low water period will appear in Heilongjiang province and in China at initial 20 years of 21 century. This will become a restraint element for agriculture sustainable development. The paper puts forward some countermeasure.