乌海市可持续发展的系统动力学模型仿真

System dynamic model for sustainable development of Wuhai City

乌海市是内蒙古自治区西部的一座资源型城市,经济增长对煤炭资源的依赖度较大,同时经济增长也受水资源的强烈制约。根据乌海市目前人口、经济与资源环境之间的基本关系特征,构建了可持续发展的系统动力学模型。模型仿真结果显示:如果乌海市目前人口、经济与资源环境之间的主要结构特征保持不变,那么未来即使技术不断进步,煤炭资源存量也将以几乎稳定的速率逐渐减少,水资源透支总量显著增大;而总人口在经历一段时期增长后,将表现出与资源型城市衰退相伴随的逐渐减少的变化趋势。根据系统动力学模型仿真结果可知,促进乌海市的可持续发展,必须采取增加可供水量、调整产业结构、改善人口空间分布格局等一系列措施。

The city of Wuhai is a resource-based city in western Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.Its economic growth on one hand is seriously dependent on coal resource,on the other hand is restricted by fresh water sources.According to the basic characteristics of relations between population,economy and resources currently,we set up a system dynamic model to describe the situation of sustainable development in future Wuhai.Furthermore,we also explain some important outputs from the system dynamic model.Under the constant structure of the system,even if technical innovation is introduced into industry,some problems worried today still exist in future.Firstly,the stock of coal resource will reduce as an almost constant rate over the time.Secondly,the over-use of fresh water sources will strikingly augment.As for population in future will shrink with further exhaustion of coal resource after a period of increase.Based on system dynamic model,the city would take some policies of more supply of fresh water sources,industrial structure modification and appropriate spatial distribution of population in future.