西北干旱区阿勒泰地区气温日较差的变化特征及R/S分析

The change characteristics and rescaled range analysis of diurnal temperature range in Altay area

气温日较差可以反映全球和区域性的温度变化幅度特征,有着重要的生态学意义,对于人类生存环境的变化、气候异常的影响及可持续发展研究具有特殊的参考价值。采用新疆阿勒泰地区7个气象站1961-2008年最高最低气温资料,运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、线性趋势法分析,结果表明:就整个地区平均而言,DTR呈显著减少趋势,冬季幅度最大。各区域中富蕴站减少幅度最大;阿勒泰站夏秋季为增加趋势,夏季通过了显著性检验,春季则为不显著减少趋势;布尔津站夏季和秋季为不显著减少趋势,与全区不同步。R/S分析结果表明,阿勒泰地区的DTR变化在未来具有反持续性,特别是秋季和富蕴站较其它季(站)强。完全相关系数法分析表明,整个地区平均而言,低云量、平均风速与DTR减少具有最显著的相关性,是影响DTR减少的主要因子,但各站有所不同。低云量及气溶胶等污染物的增加导致太阳辐射量减少,而引起气温日较差的减少;平均风速的减少则主要与全球变暖背景下亚洲冬季风和夏季风减弱导致我国平均风速的减少有关。

Diurnal temperature range can reflect the characteristics of global and regional temperature changing scope through.Based on the data of the maximum and minimum temperature of 7 meteorology stations in Altay area in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2008,the Mann-Kendall test and the linear trend law were applied to analyze the data.The results showed ：on average in this area,DTR showed remarkable decrease trend,the decrease change was the largest in winter.While Fuyun showed downward trend,Altay showed upward trend in summer and autumn,but the DTR of summer was remarkable while the spring was no obvious changes,Berqin showed no remarkable decrease trend in summer and autumn,which showed unsynchronism for region.The R/S analysis showed that in the future the DTR would be anti-persistence in Altay region,especially the DTR change of autumn in Fuyun would be larger than the others.The complete correlation coefficients was calculated,the result showed：on average in this area,low cloud amount,average wind speed and DTR were found to be the main influencing factors making DTR decrease,but which were different for three stations.The decrease of solar radiation might relate to the increase of low cloud amount and aerosol as well as the other pollutant,which made DTR decrease.And the lowering of wind speed might be associated with the weakening of the Asian winter and summer monsoon under the global climate warming.