乌海气候生产力对气候暖干化的响应

Response of climatic productivity to climate warming-drying trend in Wuhai

利用1961-2008年乌海气温、降水等资料,使用趋势分析、累计距平等方法分析了乌海气候变化的主要特征,计算了相应的气候生产力,分析了其演变特征,建立了二元回归评判模型。结果表明:1961-2008年乌海年、季气温上升显著,气候变暖趋势极为明显。除秋季降水有微弱的上升趋势外,春、夏、冬季及年降水量呈下降趋势,但均未通过显著性检验。干燥度呈现不明显的下降趋势,乌海气候呈现较强的暖干化特点;乌海气候生产力呈现微弱的增长,决定乌海气候生产力的主要因素是年降水量的变化,所建立的评判模型表明当年平均气温上升1℃,年降水量上升1mm时,乌海气候生产力将上升3.02%。

By using temperature,precipitation data of Wuhai meteorological station from 1961 to 2008（48 years）,with methods of tendency analysis and accumulative anomaly,the main features of climate change were analyzed,climatic productivity were calculated and analyzed,a binary regression evaluation model was established.The results showed that the annual mean temperature and seasonal temperature increased obviously which means climate warming trend was extremely significant under the background of global warming.Except the weak increase trend on autumn precipitation,there was a decrease trend on other season and annual precipitation,neither season nor annual precipitation passed significant test.The study indicated that the aridity had a indistinct decrease trend and the climate change inclined to warm and dry.The study also demonstrated that the climatic productivity in Wuhai had a weak increase trend and the annual precipitation was the finally factor for the climatic productivity in this area.The estimate model established in this paper explained that the climatic productivity in Wuhai will increase 3.2% if the temperature increase 1℃ while precipitation increase 1mm.