气候变化对粮食产量影响定量分析——以西安市为例

The influence of climte change on food production

以西安市为研究区域,运用主成分分析方法,定量分析了气候突变前后各因子对粮食产量的影响。研究表明:粮食产量在波动中上升;气候生产潜力利用率偏低,人为因素在粮食增产中的比重越来越高;突变之前,低温、水涝对作物产量产生了不利影响,突变之后,日益严重的大气污染及匮乏的水资源成为限制作物增产的主要因素。

Taking Xi＇an as the study area,using principal component analysis,we analysed the impact of each factor on food production before and after climate abrupt change.The results showed that：food production increased with fluctuations.The productive potential utilization rate was low.The human factors in the proportion of food production was getting higher and higher.Low temperature and flood had a negative impact on food production before climate abrupt change,while the serious air pollution and scarcity of water resources become a limiting factor of food production after the climate abrupt change.