日本商品期货市场近年衰落的原因和思考

The decline of the Japanese commodity futures market in recent years: the reasons and reflection

进入21世纪以来,曾引领亚洲期货市场发展的日本商品期货市场明显衰落。在最初的要素条件、需求状况等外生比较优势逐步削弱的同时,规模经济、技术进步、产品差别等内生比较优势发展的滞后及市场分割、产业需求不足等固有矛盾的暴露,决定了日本商品期货市场发展的下行态势,日本监管当局规范和发展期货市场脱离实际的改革措施尤其加速了市场衰落的进程。本文从日本商品期货市场的现状入手,通过比较优势理论分析衰落的原因,并从大国商品期货市场的竞争和发展中探寻教训与经验,为我国商品期货市场发展提供借鉴。

The Japanese commodity futures markets which led the development of futures markets in Asia, has obvious declined since the beginning of the 21st century. As the initial factor conditions, demand conditions and other exogenous comparative advantage gradually weaken, the endogenous comparative advantage such as the scale of the economy, technological progress, product differentiation, etc. developed slowly, the inherent contradictions as market segmentation, insufficient industry demand ware all exposed, the Japanese commodity futures market downward trend was determined. And the regulation of the authorities and the impractical reform measures for developing the futures market accelerated the process of market decline. In this paper, we study the current situation of the Japanese commodity futures market, and analyze the reasons for the decline by the comparative advantage theory. We explore the lessons and experience from the competition and development of the commodity futures market in major powers, providing a reference for the development of China’s commodity futures market.