驻马店近50年气候变化特征分析

Analysis on the Climate Change Characteristics in Zhumadian in Recent 50 Years

利用线性趋势函数及Mann-Kendall突变检测分析法,分析了驻马店气象站气温及降水近50年的气候变化特征。结果表明,年平均气温与极端气温均呈上升趋势,最低气温的上升趋势尤为明显,年降水量以波动变化为主,略有增加。春季增温趋势较秋、冬季更为明显,夏季呈现出降温趋势;春、秋季降水呈减少趋势,秋季降水减少较春季更为明显;夏季降水增加最为显著。Mann-Kendall突变检测表明,近50年驻马店气温有明显的增暖趋势,20世纪90年代后期以来的增温是一突变现象;年降水量以波动变化为主。

Based on the monthly average temperature and precipitation data of Zhumadian from 1959 to 2008,linear tendency function and Mann-Kendall test method were used to analyze the climate change. The results revealed that the trend of annual mean temperature and extreme temperature increase remarkably in the past 50 years,but the increasing speed of extreme minimum temperature is more obvious,precipitation changes were fluctuations,rose slightly. Among the four seasons,temperature raised the most in spring,followed by winter and autumn,but decreased in summer. Precipitation increased in summer,but decreased in spring and autumn. The Mann-Kendall test showed that：the annual mean temperature have shown obvious increase trends in recent 50 years,a recent abrupt temperature change happened in 1990s.The annual precipitation changes were fluctuations.